The following developments are the main elements of the management report mentioned at I of article L. 451-1-2 of the French Monetary and Financial Code and in article 222-3 of the General Regulation of the AMF, which must include the information mentioned in articles L. 225-100, L. 225-100-2, L. 225-100-3 and in the second paragraph of article L. 225-211 of the French Commercial Code.
Other information corresponding to elements required in the management report is to be found in Section 10.8 “Cross-reference table for the management report.”
The following should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and related notes. They contain information concerning the Groupe’s future objectives which imply risks and uncertainties, including, in particular, those described in Chapter 2 “Risks and risk management.”
Global economic growth in 2024 came in at +2.7%, a level which was broadly stable with the previous year. This outcome was largely due to a better performance from the US (+2.8%), which grew twice as fast as expected, and despite disappointment from China (+4.8%) and continued stagnation in Europe (+0.9%). Inflation fell by a lesser extent than in 2023 but remained at levels that are considered high. By geography, the gap between the performance of the US (+2.8%) and Europe (+0.9%) remained considerable, while China (+4.8%) slowed slightly due to its ongoing real estate crisis and weak domestic demand. The year exposed the growing divergences between the world’s major economies and was also marked by a slowdown in international trade, which grew at a slower pace than global GDP. The US benefited from its healthy level of consumer spending and labor market, yet its deficit widened to 6.4% of the nation’s GDP. Europe grappled with climate and environmental challenges, which affected its ability to be competitive. China tried to boost its economy and overhaul its economic model by encouraging domestic consumption. While central banks adopted restrictive monetary policies over the previous two years, 2024 saw a shift in all countries to stimulate the economy by cutting key interest rates. This also encouraged a positive trend, which continues to benefit the stock markets, and particularly Wall Street. Commodity prices remained broadly stable with only a sharp rise from precious metals, while agricultural goods fell.
In the US, growth is estimated at +2.8% for 2024, which was well ahead of the +1.3% forecast made one year prior and despite an uncertain global context. The first half of the year saw growth reaching almost +3%, before easing in the second half to +2.4% in the fourth quarter. The striking resilience of the US economy is mainly due to its strength of consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the nation’s GDP, as well as its monetary policy and stock market environment. Household consumption benefited from both a buoyant job market and from disinflation, which boosted household purchasing power. The level of job creation remained strong throughout the year, despite a slight weakening at the end of the period. Unemployment rose slightly but remained low at 3.8%. Inflation, which increased 3.5% year-on-year in March 2024, continued to fall until October (2.4%), before rising slightly to reach 2.7% in November. Despite previous years being marked by a tightening of monetary conditions, a continued disinflation enabled the Fed to begin a cycle of rate cuts starting in September. The lowering of rates sent a positive signal because, even if their level remained high, the certainty that they will continue to ease served as an engine for economic growth, reflected in household consumption and business investment. Additionally helped by Donald Trump’s success in the presidential election, share prices on Wall Street also saw a boost and ended 2024 with gains of over 20% for the second year running, acting as a clear stimulus for the US economy. Public spending remained at a high level with the public deficit rising to 6.4% of GDP, up from 6.2% in 2023. Business investment was less dynamic, as the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act came to an end. Business investment was less dynamic, as the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act came to an end. The US external deficit rose to 3.5% of GDP, as imports increased by over 5%, while exports grew by only 3.3%.
